On The Move

I attended a very interesting discussion a few days ago at the Brookings Institution on climate change adaptation and migration.  Though I have followed adaptation issues for a while and understand the broad strokes of migration with respect to climate change, I found the discussion really interesting because it brought up complexities to this issue that I had not considered previously. 

For those interested in the discussion in its entirety I am including an audio link of the session: https://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/0106_climate_change_adaptation.aspx

For those interested in something less detailed stay right here.

Overall, the discussion, and the Brookings Institution itself seem to be interested in creating significantly greater awareness to the seriousness of migration and population mobility issues due to climate change.  Specifically, the case is made that migration is one of the more important issues associated with climate change adaptation yet very little is understood about the linkages.  For example, the idea that populations will choose to migrate due to the effects of climate change is fairly intuitive (e.g., the rise of sea levels will cause people to move more inland).  However, how much of population movement can be directly associated with climate change and not due to other drivers such as economics?  Also, what about migration, whether voluntary or forced, as a climate change adaptation solution – is it a more cost effective climate change adaptation solution to move a population instead of building a sea wall for example?

Migration due to natural disasters or changing environments has been around for approximately forever (hence the dustbowl picture).  Climate change is a clear multiplier of natural disasters and changing environments, and therefore has a clear link to migration.  But is there a way to attribute specific migration data to climate change?  An interesting example of this very issue that was brought up during the discussion at the Brookings Institution, which revolved around population declines in certain agricultural areas in the Middle East due to lower crop yields.  Investigating the lower crop yields indicated a change in pest activity driven by a change in weather patterns as a key driver.  Therefore, is there a way to clearly delineate the migration patterns due to climate change from those due to other drivers such as economics?  Can the case be made that pest management expenses or financial help to relocate farmers is a climate change adaptation activity?  Also, how will the larger growth in urban areas from this migration affect the climate change adaptation strategies of the urban area?  What about possible solutions to prevent the migration or cope with the influx of people? 

Just this one example creates a lot of questions.  One further question is why does it matter that migration patterns or activities be linked to climate change?

One very big reason that the distinction matters is money.  To put this question into context, most assumptions for climate change funding are based on the promises made in Copenhagen by developed countries to mobilize approximately $100 billion dollars per year by 2020 in assistance to developing countries for climate change.  Although no one knows how much of this money will go to adaptation activities, the current estimates of less than 5% of all climate change finance going to adaptation activities doesn’t bode well.  When you add to this the idea that the private sector will play a significant role in climate finance and how much you can engage the private sector in adaptation activities, a lot of concerns begin to arise on how and where the limited resources made available to address climate change adaptation should be spent.  Therefore, if migration can be directly attributed to climate change then some of the available climate adaptation funding can be used to investigate this issue.  Unfortunately, this also means that any money spent around migration might directly compete against other climate change adaptation activities.  This is the classic battle between soft solutions (e.g., research or institutional assistance) versus hard solutions (e.g., sea wall construction projects). 

As I mentioned in a previous blog, the recently concluded climate negotiations in Durban South Africa did make some important strides in the area of climate change adaptation.  One of them was the official launching of the adaptation committee, which is the body in charge of providing broad recommendations on all issues around climate change adaptation, such as finance, technology transfer, best practices to name just a few.  Although migration is considered within the official text of climate change adaptation, it is unclear how prominent a topic it will be given the large number of issues this committee needs to address.  Given that migration due to climate change is already happening, will continue to grow, and will have a dramatic impact on national adaptation strategies, it seems clear that the adaptation committee must make understanding the linkages of migration and climate change a priority.